As expected, Disney and LucasFilm’s The Last Jedi gave a shot in the arm to the sagging box office, with a massive $220 million opening weekend that was good enough for the second highest debut ever, just behind 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.9 million). The movie only had one direct competitor in wide release, 20th Century Fox’s animated comedy Ferdinand, but this weekend it will be facing five newcomers, two of which (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman) open tomorrow, with three more (Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, Father Figures) win Friday, while All the Money in the World opens wide on Monday, Christmas Day. Despite this influx of new competition, Star Wars: The Last Jedi should have no trouble repeating atop the box office this weekend, with a projected $135.6 million.
Among the many box office records still held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens is the second weekend tally of $149.2 million, which marked just a 39.8% drop from its massive debut. If Star Wars: The Last Jedi matches this projection of $135.6 million, it will also mark a 39.8% drop, and it’s possible that its second weekend decrease is even lower, given how some of the biggest secrets unveiled in The Last Jedi were massive and change the face of the whole franchise. It’s certainly possible that this could lead to more repeat viewings over the weekend, but then again, this projection could be completely off going the other way, giving how divisive the movie has been, with some even forming a petition to remove The Last Jedi from the official Star Wars canon.
Among the newcomers The Last Jedi will face this weekend, Sony’s action-packed Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which stars Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black and Karen Gillan, will get the biggest rollout with roughly 3,700 theaters, and it is currently the only newcomer in wide release to have positive reviews thus far, with an impressive 80% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Pitch Perfect 3 opens in roughly 3,400 theaters but currently has just a 41% rating on RT, a sharp decline from 2012’s Pitch Perfect (80% on RT) and 2015’s Pitch Perfect 2 (67% on RT). The Greatest Showman (3,100 theaters) and Father Figures (2,800 theaters) both don’t have enough reviews to warrant a Rotten Tomatoes score, yet, with Downsizing slated to open in roughly 2,400 theaters, currently straddling the line between “Fresh” and “Rotten” with a 59% score on RT.
We’re predicting that The Rock’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will take second place with an opening weekend debut of $40.7 million, followed by Pitch Perfect 3 in third place with $32.6 million, a big drop from the $69.2 million opening weekend of Pitch Perfect 2 in 2015. Rounding out the top 5 will likely be The Greatest Showman in fourth place with $21.6 million and Downsizing in fifth with $14.2 million, with the top 10 rounded out by Father Figures} ($7.5 million), Ferdinand ($6.1 million), Coco ($5.4 million), Wonder ($3.1 million) and Justice League ($2.8 million). Fox Searchlight will be expanding The Shape of Water to more theaters as well this weekend, so it’s possible that could sneak into the top 10 as well. Also debuting in limited release is Fox Searchlight’s The Post, Entertainment Studios’ Hostiles, Vertical Entertainment’s Crooked House and Yash Raj’s Tiger Zinda Hai.
The final wide release of the year will be Sony’s All the Money in the World, which has been making headlines after replacing Kevin Spacey with Christopher Plummer, following Kevin Spacey’s sexual misconduct scandal. The movie will open in roughly 2,000 theaters on Christmas Day, with STX Entertainment’s Molly’s Game debuting in roughly 200 theaters and Focus Features’ Phantom Thread also arriving in four theaters. Magnolia will also release Into the Fade in limited release on Wednesday, December 27 with Sony Pictures Classics releasing Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool in limited release on Friday, December 29, to close out the year that was 2017. Take a look at our projections for the weekend of December 22, and check back this weekend for the top 10 estimates, courtesy of Box Office Mojo.
|1||Star Wars: The Last Jedi|
|2||Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle|
|3||Pitch Perfect 3|
|4||The Greatest Showman|